NFL Pick: Wounded Green Bay Packers Get Visit From Chicago Bears

Sunday, December 25, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers' perfect season came to an abrupt end against an inferior opponent last Sunday, for their new purpose is now securing home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

The Packers can achieve that goal by snuffing out the reeling Chicago Bears on Sunday night – or it already may be settled by the time they wake up Christmas morning if the Seattle Seahawks can knock off the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday. Should the Niners lose, Green Bay will secure the No. 1 overall seed and Packers coach Mike McCarthy will have the luxury of resting some of his key players. That's an option McCarthy would love to have after watching top wide receiver Greg Jennings and starting RT Bryan Bulaga sidelined the past two weeks with knee injuries.

For the Chicago Bears, their dreams of competing for a Super Bowl title have just about vanished due to an injury-induced long losing streak.

These two NFC North inhabitants squared off in the 2010 conference championship game back in January, but only the Packers seem to have a reasonable shot at making a repeat trip due to a crippling stretch of four consecutive defeats by the Bears that coincided with the sidelining of both starting quarterback Jay Cutler and star running back Matt Forte. The winless run has placed Chicago at 7-7 on the season and two games behind both Atlanta and Detroit for the NFC's two Wild Card berths with two to play.

For the Bears to return to this year's postseason, they'll have to prevail both this week and in the Jan. 1 finale at Minnesota, while both the Falcons and Lions must fall in their remaining contests.

Green Bay still remains in the conference's catbird seat despite last Sunday's startling 19-14 road setback to sub-.500 Kansas City, ending a sequence of 19 straight victories dating back to last season that ranks as the second-longest run in NFL history. The Packers would wrap up the NFC's top overall seed by prevailing in one of their final two bouts, or if San Francisco loses once in the final two weeks.

Prior to the Chiefs' upset, the Packers had not been knocked off since a 31-27 ousting by New England on Dec. 19, 2010.

It's only seemed like a year since the Bears last tasted victory, and a lack of offensive production has been mainly to blame for the team's present rut. Chicago has averaged a paltry 11.8 points in the four tests Cutler has missed due a broken thumb, and has been held to 245 total yards or less in replacement Caleb Hanie's last three starts.

Hanie threw nine interceptions and posted a lowly 41.8 passer rating in four fill-in outings, prompting head coach Lovie Smith to turn to journeyman Josh McCown for Sunday's showdown. The 32-year-old does have experience, having started a total of 31 times for four different in a nomadic nine-year career, but hasn't made one since 2007.

Forte, who was averaging 123.9 yards from scrimmage prior to spraining his knee in a 10-3 home loss to Kansas City in Week 13, will sit out a third straight game with his injury. Backup Marion Barber is also expected to be inactive with a calf strain suffered in this past Sunday's 38-14 defeat to Seattle, while leading receiver Johnny Knox sustained a serious back injury in that matchup and was placed on injured reserve on Monday.

The Bears, who haven't dropped five in a row in the same season since an eight- game skid from Sept. 22-Nov. 18, 2002, were handed a 27-17 loss by the Packers in Chicago back in Week 3 and have been bested in each of their last three trips to Lambeau Field as well.

Chicago and Green Bay have met 181 times previously during the regular-season in the NFL's most-played series, which dates all the way back to the 1921 season, with the Bears owning a 91-84-6 overall advantage. The Packers have won four of the last five meetings in the set, however, including a 10-3 home triumph in Week 17 of the 2010 campaign that vaulted the team into the postseason.

Green Bay took both of its two encounters with Chicago in 2009, scoring a 21-15 verdict at Lambeau Field that year, with the Bears' last road win over the Packers coming in 2007. Chicago did top Green Bay by a 20-17 count at Soldier Field in September of the 2010 season.

Last January's NFC Championship marked only the second head-to-head meeting between the storied franchises in the postseason. The other came in 1941, when George Halas' Bears recorded a 33-14 victory over Curly Lambeau's Packers in a Division Playoff.

Including last season's playoff loss, Lovie Smith is 8-8 against the Packers during his reign as the Bears' head coach. McCarthy sports a 7-5 record versus both Chicago and Smith over his five-year tenure in Green Bay.

Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, December 25, 2011. Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Last Week's results:
- Chicago Bears (-3.5) loses to visiting Seattle Seahawks 38-14.
- Green Bay Packers (-13.5) loses to host Kansas City Chiefs 19-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Chicago Bears (7-7) loses outright
- Favourite Green Bay Packers (13-1) loses outright.

NFL Football Odds: Packers -14, O/U 42

Next up:
- Chicago at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, January 1
- Green Bay home to Detroit Lions, Sunday, January 1

Chicago has gone belly up since QB Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb, absorbing four consecutive losses to put its postseason hopes on life support. The Bears finally pulled the plug on Caleb Hanie, who looked overmatched in his four-game stint. He had two interceptions returned for TDs last week as Seattle scored 31 unanswered points in a 38-14 win.

In a desperate measure, the Bears will start Josh McCown, who was coaching at the high school level last month and last started in the United Football League last year. McCown hasn’t started an NFL game since 2007, and his task won’t be any easier with Forte sitting out a third straight game.

With Greg Jennings out of the lineup, Aaron Rodgers had his roughest game of the season in Sunday’s 19-14 loss at Kansas City. He failed to throw multiple TD passes for the first time this season, completed fewer than half his passes and his 235 passing yards were a season low.

It also represented the fewest points scored by Green Bay since a 10-3 victory over Chicago in the 2010 regular-season finale. The running game should get a boost with the expected turn of James Starks, who has sat out the last two games with an ankle injury. Ryan Grant rushed for 151 yards while Starks was out, but he had a total of only 22 carries in the two games.
Since there's little chance of Chicago's offense matching the Packers score- for-score, the Bears are going to have to explore alternative avenues to come up with ways to create scoring opportunities. Julius Peppers is going to have to be at his havoc-wreaking best to disrupt Rodgers and neutralize Green Bay's power- packed passing attack like the Chiefs were able to do last week, and the defense must stand its ground in the red zone and force turnovers. It'll be a task easier said than done, however, as the Packers' 12 giveaways are the second-fewest in the league and they're third in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage (62.7 percent).

Chicago's dependable defense is capable of preventing the Packers, who are dealing with a few big injuries on the offensive side, from lighting up the scoreboard at will. It still won't matter, however, unless the Bears receive the competent play under center that Hanie wasn't equipped to provide from their new substitute quarterback. With such a long layoff between NFL starts, he's really an unknown quantity at this point, but does have the luxury of facing a defense that's had its issues in stopping the pass.

How much will the Packers' starters play? The only real drama concerning this contest is whether Green Bay will be able to cover the double-digit spread. If the Packers do get out to a comfortable lead, it wouldn't be surprising to see McCarthy pull Rodgers and some other regulars for much of the second half and make the final outcome appear a little closer than it actually was.

The Packers have beaten the Bears three straight, including a 21-14 win in last season's NFC title game and a 27-17 victory earlier this season. The last two have been in Chicago.

McCown has appeared in 48 games with five different teams. He has thrown 35 TD passes and 41 interceptions in his career.

Rodgers broke the franchise record with his 40th TD pass last week, becoming the fifth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.

Green Bay is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games at home
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

With virtually all of its best skill players hurt and forced to start a stopgap quarterback who's barely taken a snap in four years, not to mention having to take on the league's most successful team on the road with it stewing over a loss, it's hard to imagine Chicago being in a worse scenario.

While the Bears may be able to take a page out of Kansas City's blueprint for slowing down Rodgers and his cast of playmakers, the McCown-led offense still isn't going to be able to keep up. Look for the Packers to set the tone and build a sizeable advantage on their beaten and battered rivals before playing it safe the rest of the way.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Packers.

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NFL Pick: Wounded Green Bay Packers Get Visit From Chicago Bears

by Aengus Moorehead

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